Ethereum (ETH) concluded June with a slight decline of 1.5%, despite a series of significant bullish developments throughout the month. This negative performance contributed to a 25% loss for the first half of the year, leaving many investors questioning the underlying market dynamics.
Ethereum's Current Market Position
As of recent data, Ethereum is trading around $2,400. The asset experienced a 3% drop on Tuesday, extending its bearish trend from June. This price action occurred even as the network achieved several critical milestones that traditionally would support upward momentum.
Several major factors contributed to Ethereum's stagnation despite positive fundamentals. Geopolitical tensions created shadow over the entire crypto market, while record short positions on the CME added downward pressure. Additionally, a key whale or institution moved significant amounts of ETH to exchanges, potentially for selling purposes.
Why Ethereum Failed to Rally Despite Bullish Developments
June marked several historically significant events for Ethereum that typically drive price appreciation, yet the market response remained muted.
Record ETF Inflows and Accumulation Address Activity
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their second-best month since launch, with net inflows reaching $1.16 billion. The month saw only three days of outflows totaling $39.98 million—the lowest monthly outflow figure on record.
Simultaneously, June witnessed the strongest monthly inflows to ETH accumulation addresses in history. Accumulation addresses—typically dominated by new wallets—are those that have never recorded any outflow or selling activity. This metric typically indicates strong holding sentiment among new investors.
Corporate Adoption and Staking Growth
Several public companies, including SharpLink Gaming (SBET), Bit Digital (BTBT), and BitMine (BMNR), announced ETH treasury strategies during June. This institutional adoption coincided with the total value of staked ETH growing steadily to a new high of 35.52 million ETH.
The regulatory environment also showed promising developments. The GENIUS Stablecoin Act gained bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate, boosting sentiment around the Ethereum blockchain, which hosts nearly 50% of the stablecoin market according to DefiLlama data.
Countervailing Market Forces
Despite these positive fundamentals, several factors prevented Ethereum from sustaining an upward trend:
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran created market-wide uncertainty, causing Ethereum to lose key support levels and briefly drop to $2,110. This move erased several days of potential bullish structure.
The asset also reacted negatively to tensions between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump on social media platform X regarding proposed legislation.
Investment patterns showed expansion of Ethereum basis trading, with short positions on the CME growing alongside ETH ETF inflows—a contradictory signal that suggested professional traders were hedging long exposure.
A key whale or institution unstaked 95.3K ETH over three weeks and sent 68.1K ETH to exchanges, potentially for selling, according to smart wallet tracker EmberCN.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge After Rejection
Ethereum's recent price action has formed a concerning technical picture that suggests potential downside risk.
Recent Price Action and Key Levels
In the past 24 hours, Ethereum futures liquidations totaled $46.06 million according to Coinglass data. Long positions accounted for $40.10 million of these liquidations, while short positions represented only $5.96 million.
ETH faced rejection at the critical $2,510 level, which bears have successfully defended over the past week. The price has since been consolidating in a tight range between $2,300 and $2,500.
Emerging Technical Patterns
On the 12-hour chart, a concerning development has emerged: the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed below the 100-period SMA, suggesting a death cross pattern. This lagging indicator signals that short-term momentum is weakening relative to longer-term trends.
The price is currently testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is reinforced by the 200-period SMA around $2,350. A break below this support level could trigger further declines toward $2,110. If that level fails, Ethereum could potentially drop to $1,750.
On the upside, Ethereum must overcome resistance near the 50-period and 100-period SMAs to retest the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oscillating near its neutral level, while the Stochastic Oscillator has declined into oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum is building.
👉 Explore real-time trading tools
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Ethereum's price decline despite positive ETF flows?
Several factors countered the positive ETF momentum, including geopolitical tensions, expanded basis trading by institutions, and large transfers to exchanges by whales. These selling pressures overwhelmed the positive demand signals from ETF inflows.
How significant is the death cross pattern for Ethereum's price?
While the death cross is a lagging indicator, it typically signals weakening short-term momentum. However, it's important to consider this pattern within the broader context of support levels and fundamental developments rather than in isolation.
What are accumulation addresses and why are they important?
Accumulation addresses are wallets that have only received ETH and never sent any out. They typically represent new investors or long-term holders. Record inflows to these addresses suggest strong underlying demand despite price stagnation.
What key support levels should Ethereum holders watch?
The immediate support lies around $2,350 (200-period SMA and triangle boundary), followed by $2,110. A break below these levels could signal further downside toward $1,750.
How might stablecoin regulation affect Ethereum's price?
Positive regulatory developments for stablecoins could benefit Ethereum significantly since it hosts nearly half of the stablecoin market. Clear regulations may increase institutional adoption and usage of Ethereum-based stablecoins.
Are institutional investors still accumulating Ethereum?
ETF flow data and accumulation address metrics suggest continued institutional interest. However, some large holders have been moving ETH to exchanges, creating a divergence between different types of investors.
Market Outlook and Strategic Considerations
The current Ethereum market presents a complex picture of strong fundamental developments conflicting with technical bearish signals and external macroeconomic pressures.
For traders and investors, the key levels to watch remain $2,350 on the downside and $2,510 on the upside. A sustained break above $2,510 could invalidate the bearish technical structure and open the path toward higher resistance levels.
Long-term investors might view current prices as accumulation opportunities given the strong fundamental developments around ETF flows, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity. However, short-term traders should remain cautious given the emerging technical bearish signals and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The coming weeks will be critical for determining whether the fundamental strengths will eventually overcome the current technical and macroeconomic headwinds.