Bitcoin (BTC) has swiftly regained its footing, bouncing back from recent lows near $75,000 to surpass $84,000. This recovery signals a notable shift in market sentiment, moving away from fear and back toward optimism. As prices climb, the options market reflects this renewed confidence, with calls targeting $100,000 once again capturing significant trader interest.
Data from derivatives exchange Deribit highlights this trend. Investors are moving away from previously popular put options in the $75,000 to $78,000 range—often used to hedge against declines—and are instead accumulating call options between $85,000 and $100,000. This activity suggests many are positioning for a potential upward breakout in the coming weeks.
Policy Shifts Boost Market Confidence
This rebound is closely tied to recent policy developments. Initial announcements of new tariffs on imported goods had stirred market uncertainty, particularly concerning tech and electronics. However, subsequent updates offering exemptions for certain products, including smartphones, were interpreted positively. While statements from officials have been mixed, the overall market response has leaned toward optimism, with capital flowing back into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
As analyzed by Deribit:
Shifting pressures in debt markets influenced recent policy adjustments, moving from aggressive measures to more conciliatory tones. This, in turn, shifted market sentiment from panic and capitulation to rebound and chase.
With Bitcoin surging from $75,000 to above $85,000, traders sold off put options in the $75,000–$78,000 range, while call options between $85,000 and $100,000 saw substantial new demand.
Options Skew Indicates Improving Sentiment
From a technical perspective, the options skew metric—which measures the difference in demand between calls and puts—also indicates a recovery in market mood. According to data from Amberdata, the 30-, 60-, and 90-day skew for Bitcoin options have all turned positive. This indicates that fear has subsided and bullish expectations are returning.
Although the 7-day skew remains slightly negative, it has improved significantly from -14% just a week ago. This rapid normalization suggests that traders are quickly regaining confidence.
$100,000 Calls Regain Popularity
Another strong signal comes from the distribution of open interest on Deribit. The $100,000 call option has reemerged as the most popular trade, with nearly $1.2 billion in open interest. This indicates that a large volume of capital is betting on Bitcoin reaching new highs in the near future.
Significant open interest is also concentrated in call options between $95,000 and $120,000, further underscoring the market’s optimism toward new all-time highs.
That said, not all traders are convinced. Put options at the $70,000 strike price hold the second-largest open interest, around $982 million, indicating that bearish positions remain active. This shows that while optimism is growing, risk management and downside protection are still in play.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does a positive options skew indicate?
A positive skew means that call options are in higher demand than put options. This typically reflects bullish sentiment, as traders are more interested in betting on price increases than protecting against declines.
Why are $100,000 calls significant?
High open interest in out-of-the-money calls, like those at $100,000, shows that many investors expect a major price rally. It can also act as a psychological marker, reinforcing bullish narratives in the market.
How do policy changes influence Bitcoin’s price?
Macro policy shifts, such as tariff announcements or monetary updates, often affect investor sentiment and capital allocation. Positive policy news can drive money into risk-on assets like Bitcoin, while uncertainty may cause short-term pullbacks.
What is open interest in options trading?
Open interest refers to the total number of active option contracts that have not been settled. High open interest at certain strike prices can indicate where traders expect significant price movement.
Is current market sentiment entirely bullish?
Not entirely. While call buying is increasing, substantial open interest in put options shows that many traders are still hedging or betting against further gains, indicating a balanced but optimistic-leaning market.
How can traders use options data in their strategy?
Monitoring changes in options skew, volume, and open interest can help traders gauge market sentiment and identify potential support or resistance levels. This data is often used to confirm trends or anticipate reversals.