Hedera's HBAR token is currently displaying price patterns and technical indicators that closely mirror its behavior from the 2021 market cycle, according to analysis shared by Rekt Capital. The cryptocurrency recently retraced to a key support zone after momentum indicators showed it was significantly overbought, aligning with historical tendencies observed in previous cycles.
In a recent report, Rekt Capital highlighted that HBAR was showing multiple signs of a near-term retracement based on past price action. The token attempted to break out above its weekly lower high but faced resistance similar to what was observed in 2021, just before a major downward move.
A few months ago, this assessment proved accurate as HBAR reversed back into a critical support level identified in Rekt Capital's chart analysis. This historical parallelism continues to offer valuable insight into the token's potential future movements.
Historical Price Trends and Key Support Levels
Rekt Capital's observation focuses on the weekly chart configuration of HBAR, which has closely followed the path established during the same market environment in 2021. The analyst identified crucial support and resistance levels marked by horizontal lines on price charts, with particular emphasis on specific price regions highlighted in orange.
The recent price action shows HBAR retracing into the noted orange-circle region, consistent with behavior observed in the previous market cycle. This zone, approximately between $0.16 and $0.22, has historically served as a turning point for price reversals.
A particularly important technical level is what Rekt Capital refers to as the "local red area," which HBAR briefly lost as support before attempting to reclaim it. According to the analysis, HBAR needs to maintain this price level with a weekly close above it to confirm support holding and establish a potential springboard move higher.
The price chart shows a pennant-like formation with downward-sloping resistance that HBAR has recently broken above. This breakout, combined with the established support level, could create the technical foundation for a move toward the $0.20 region if historical patterns continue to repeat.
The resistance level that HBAR would need to overcome for a sustained uptrend is visible on the chart as the upper red boxed area. In 2021, HBAR managed to break above this zone temporarily before retracing, and analysts suggest a similar attempt could occur if current support levels hold firm.
RSI Analysis and Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers additional confirmation of similarities between HBAR's current position and the dynamics witnessed in 2021. Rekt Capital identified a pattern that the RSI has followed almost identically, moving from significantly overbought territory to a critical reversal range.
In early 2025, HBAR's RSI reached levels identified as "tremendously overbought," as depicted in orange-highlighted boxes on technical charts. The RSI then sharply fell to the 46 level, reaching the reversal zone that Rekt Capital identified back in mid-2021.
"The RSI has dropped from tremendously overbought right into the blue 46 RSI level which back in mid-2021 was a reversal zone, especially confirmed after breaching the multi-month RSI downtrend," Rekt Capital noted.
This momentum indicator is now approaching a resistance line from a multi-month downtrend. A break above that line would provide technical confirmation of shifting momentum toward the bullish side.
For HBAR to confirm a bullish reversal, two technical developments need to occur simultaneously: the price must reclaim the red support area on the price chart, and the RSI needs to break above its green downtrend resistance line. This dual confirmation would significantly strengthen the case for upward movement.
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Alternative Analyst Perspectives
While Rekt Capital's analysis maintains a measured approach grounded in historical comparison, other analysts have provided more optimistic HBAR price forecasts based on different methodologies.
Analyst Froggy sees the current price action as setting up for a bullish reversal, noting that stronger buying interest appears to be emerging as the token tests previous support levels that are now acting as resistance.
Taking an even more bullish stance, analyst Gilmore Estates applies Elliott Wave theory to project substantially higher price targets for HBAR. "We've completed the (4) wave retracement, bounced off key support, and the chart is screaming one thing: Wave (5) is in play," the analyst stated.
This analysis suggests potential upside exceeding 600% from current levels, with a specific target of $1.23. While substantially more optimistic than other projections, this viewpoint still acknowledges the importance of current support levels holding.
The common thread among all analyses is the emphasis on HBAR's current price zone as a critical pivot point for future movement. Whether for a move to $0.20 or substantially higher targets, maintaining current support levels appears essential for any bullish scenario.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the key support level for HBAR?
The crucial support zone for HBAR lies between approximately $0.16 and $0.22, which has historically served as a reversal point. Maintaining this level, particularly what analysts call the "local red area," is essential for any potential upward movement.
How does current RSI compare to historical patterns?
HBAR's Relative Strength Index recently dropped from tremendously overbought conditions to around 46, mirroring exactly what occurred in mid-2021 before a significant reversal. This similarity to historical patterns provides technical context for current price action.
What are the requirements for a bullish confirmation?
Two technical developments must occur simultaneously: price must reclaim and hold key support levels with a weekly close above them, and the RSI must break above its multi-month downtrend resistance line. This dual confirmation would signal strengthened bullish momentum.
What time frame are analysts considering?
Most technical analysis focuses on weekly chart configurations, which provide clearer signals for medium-term trends. These patterns typically unfold over several weeks rather than days, making them more reliable for strategic positioning.
How accurate have these patterns been historically?
The 2021 patterns have shown remarkable accuracy in predicting recent HBAR price action, with retracements to identified support zones occurring as anticipated. However, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, especially in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
What risk management approaches should traders consider?
Given the uncertainty inherent in technical analysis, traders should consider implementing stop-loss orders below critical support levels and position sizing that accounts for potential downside volatility. 👉 Learn professional risk management techniques
Conclusion
HBAR's price action continues to mirror historical patterns from the 2021 market cycle, offering technical analysts valuable insights into potential future movements. The token's ability to hold key support levels between $0.16 and $0.22 appears crucial for any springboard move toward $0.20 or beyond.
While different analysts project varying price targets based on their methodologies, all emphasize the importance of current support levels holding. The convergence of price action and RSI patterns similar to 2021 provides a compelling technical narrative, though cryptocurrency markets remain inherently unpredictable.
Traders and investors should monitor weekly closes above support levels and RSI breaks above downtrend resistance for confirmation of bullish momentum while maintaining appropriate risk management strategies given market volatility.