The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of renewed vigor after a period of consolidation. Bitcoin (BTC) has repeatedly tested and briefly surpassed the $95,000 mark, demonstrating notable resilience. This has led many to ask: can Bitcoin break through current resistance levels and challenge the $100,000 threshold, potentially setting new all-time highs?
A growing chorus of analysts from major financial institutions points to a constellation of positive signals. Specifically, robust demand from corporate treasury acquisitions and spot Bitcoin ETFs is triggering a significant supply squeeze, which may lay the groundwork for Bitcoin's next record-breaking rally.
Key Drivers Behind the Supply Crunch
Depleting Retail Selling Pressure
Following a market correction, selling pressure from retail investors appears to have largely exhausted itself. This has helped establish a more solid market foundation, reducing downward volatility and creating a stronger base for future price appreciation.
Intensifying Corporate Bitcoin Acquisition Race
The trend of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets is accelerating beyond the well-known example of MicroStrategy, which recently invested an additional $1.4 billion to bring its total holdings to over 550,000 BTC. New players are entering the field at a remarkable pace.
A notable development is the formation of "Twenty One Capital," a joint venture involving SoftBank, stablecoin issuer Tether, crypto exchange Bitfinex, and Cantor Fitzgerald. This new entity is focused on corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, with initial plans to hold 42,000 BTC backed by substantial funding: $9 billion from SoftBank, $15 billion from Tether, and $6 billion from Bitfinex. The company further plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners to raise additional capital.
Analysis indicates that approximately 80 companies now collectively hold about 700,000 BTC, representing 3.4% of Bitcoin's total fixed supply of 21 million coins. This corporate accumulation game is becoming increasingly competitive as more organizations recognize Bitcoin's value proposition.
Resurgent ETF Flows with Growing Institutional Participation
Since their approval in the United States earlier this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs have become a major channel for capital inflows. While flows stalled during Bitcoin's price correction from above $109,000 to below $75,000, they have recently returned with remarkable strength.
Last week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding $3 billion—the highest in five months and the second-highest weekly inflow on record. These ETFs now collectively hold over 5.5% of Bitcoin's total supply, with assets under management of approximately $110 billion.
Perhaps more significantly, institutional participation has dramatically increased. Analysis reveals that institutions now hold about 33% of ETF assets (up from 20% in September), with 48% held by investment advisors (likely representing portfolio allocations) and 31% by hedge funds (possibly for basis trading). When combining ETF and corporate holdings, these entities now control approximately 9% of Bitcoin's total supply—seven times more than before ETF launch.
Analytical Perspectives on Bitcoin's Future
Bernstein's Optimistic Outlook
Research and brokerage firm Bernstein remains particularly bullish on Bitcoin's prospects. Their analysts acknowledge that Bitcoin's price may exhibit short-term correlation with gold or tech stocks (like the Nasdaq), but emphasize that these temporary relationships are misleading. The more important factors are those driving Bitcoin's unique supply and demand fundamentals.
Bernstein analysts have identified additional indicators of potential supply tightening, noting that the percentage of Bitcoin held on exchanges has declined from 16% at the end of the previous year to 13% currently. However, some analysts caution that this reduction might simply represent coins moving from exchanges to ETF custodians (like Coinbase), meaning the overall balance controlled by centralized entities may not have changed significantly.
Based on their supply-demand analysis, Bernstein reaffirms its highly optimistic long-term predictions: Bitcoin reaching approximately $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033 (with periodic bear markets along the way). The firm emphasizes: "Long-term, we believe Bitcoin's fundamentals are driven by its own demand trajectory and its mathematically proven immutable supply of 21 million coins. Given current supply dynamics, we find it difficult to be pessimistic about this asset."
Standard Chartered's Bullish Indicators
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, similarly expresses optimism about Bitcoin's near-term and medium-term prospects, expecting another wave of price appreciation. His latest report highlights several supporting indicators:
- U.S. Treasury term premium hitting highs: This metric shows high correlation with Bitcoin prices and has reached its highest point in 12 years, potentially signaling rising market optimism toward Bitcoin.
- Shift in investor behavior: Trading pattern analysis indicates U.S. investors are actively seeking non-U.S. assets for allocation, particularly after recent trade policy announcements. Simultaneously, Asian investors are actively buying Bitcoin, collectively boosting upward momentum.
- Continued whale accumulation: Large holders (whales) possessing over 1,000 BTC continued buying during market downturns, consistent with whale behavior patterns observed before previous bull market launches.
- Capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin: ETF flow data from the past week shows money moving out of gold ETFs and into Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting Bitcoin's growing appeal as a store of value and hedge asset.
Kendrick further elaborates on the respective roles of Bitcoin and gold in investment portfolios. He views Bitcoin primarily as a hedge against traditional financial system risks, where its decentralized nature makes it more effective than gold. Gold, conversely, remains better suited for hedging geopolitical risks.
Based on this analysis, Kendrick offers very optimistic price predictions: he expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025 and maintains his long-standing view of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Navigating the Current Bitcoin Market
The analyses from both Bernstein and Standard Chartered point toward a common conclusion: against the backdrop of Bitcoin's limited supply (with new supply diminishing following halving events), sustained and robust demand from corporate accumulation and ETF inflows is creating a significant supply tightness. This supply squeeze, combined with potential future catalysts like further institutional and sovereign adoption, provides strong fundamental support for new price highs in the near future.
While short-term market volatility is inevitable, the longer-term perspective shared by these institutional analysts suggests that Bitcoin's upward trajectory—driven by its inherent scarcity and growing demand—remains clear. For investors, understanding current supply-demand dynamics and potential future drivers is crucial for appreciating Bitcoin's long-term investment value.
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Of course, all investments carry risk, and the cryptocurrency market is particularly known for its volatility. Investors should make decisions based on thorough research and personal risk assessment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is causing Bitcoin's current supply squeeze?
The supply squeeze is primarily driven by two factors: increased corporate purchasing of Bitcoin for treasury reserves and massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. These substantial demand sources are absorbing available supply while new Bitcoin creation remains limited by the protocol's emission schedule.
How do Bitcoin ETFs affect its price?
ETFs create additional demand from investors who prefer traditional investment vehicles. They also remove Bitcoin from circulating supply as assets are held in custody. Significant net inflows into ETFs directly increase buying pressure while reducing available supply, potentially driving prices upward.
What is the significance of corporations buying Bitcoin?
Corporate adoption validates Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, similar to gold. When companies allocate portions of their cash reserves to Bitcoin, it demonstrates institutional confidence, creates permanent demand (as these coins are typically held long-term), and reduces circulating supply.
How does Bitcoin's fixed supply impact its value?
With a predetermined maximum supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is inherently scarce. This fixed supply schedule means that increased demand cannot be met with increased production, potentially creating upward price pressure during periods of high demand.
Should investors be concerned about short-term price volatility?
While short-term volatility is characteristic of cryptocurrency markets, many investors focus on long-term fundamentals rather than daily price movements. Understanding Bitcoin's value proposition as a decentralized store of value can help investors maintain perspective during periods of price fluctuation.
How can investors safely gain exposure to Bitcoin?
Investors have multiple options including direct purchase through reputable exchanges, Bitcoin ETFs for traditional account access, and specialized funds. Each approach has different considerations regarding security, custody, taxes, and regulatory compliance that investors should carefully evaluate.