Bitcoin's recent bullish momentum is showing signs of strain as on-chain analysts warn of fading buying pressure. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but the path forward hinges on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim and sustain new highs.
Current Market Dynamics and Key Resistance
On-chain analyst Willy Woo has highlighted that unless Bitcoin swiftly achieves new all-time highs, its rapid upward movement may soon encounter significant resistance. Indicators suggest that capital inflow is stagnating, pointing to a potential disconnect between market enthusiasm and actual demand.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a crucial risk metric, reveals that a large number of holders are sitting on substantial unrealized gains. Should market momentum decline further, this could trigger increased selling activity. Historical patterns indicate that high speculative excitement often precedes profit-taking and market consolidation.
Despite these challenges, several bullish signals persist. Woo’s proprietary Bitcoin risk indicator suggests the asset maintains a positive structural foundation. A decisive breakout above the $114,000 level, especially following the U.S. holiday period, could ignite short liquidations and propel another significant rally.
👉 Track key Bitcoin metrics in real-time
Institutional Adoption and Political Recognition
In a landmark move for political acceptance of digital assets, Britain’s Reform Party has become the first major UK political party to accept Bitcoin donations. Party leader Nigel Farage announced the initiative at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas. The party will process cryptocurrency donations through payment provider Radom, distinguishing itself from traditional rivals like the Labour and Conservative parties.
Farage described the decision as both practical and ideological, noting that if elected, the party plans to introduce a Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Act. Key proposals include establishing a Bitcoin reserve at the Bank of England and opposing the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the UK—positions consistent with the party’s libertarian leanings.
Although the Reform Party currently holds only five parliamentary seats, its acceptance of crypto donations signals growing political acknowledgment of digital assets in modern finance. The party’s website now features a dedicated cryptocurrency donation portal, operating in full compliance with Electoral Commission regulations that prohibit anonymous contributions.
Declining Volatility and Increased Institutional Participation
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reached its lowest volatility since inception, with a 90-day rolling volatility metric of 47.64. Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted that this stability has created a self-reinforcing cycle: as price fluctuations decrease, risk-averse institutional investors feel more comfortable entering the market, which in turn further suppresses volatility.
“The nature of volatility is that it can be self-fulfilling,” explained Balchunas, attributing the trend to increased participation from traditional investors seeking ‘digital gold’ rather than speculative tech exposure.
Since its launch in January 2024, the fund has attracted $49 billion in net inflows, vastly outperforming competitor products like Fidelity’s FBTC, which garnered $12 billion. This inflow disparity underscores Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class, with institutional-grade investment vehicles like IBIT becoming preferred gateways for mainstream capital.
Unprecedented Stability in the Current Bull Market
Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run, which began in early 2023, demonstrates remarkable resilience and significantly lower volatility compared to previous market cycles. The average three-month realized volatility has remained below 50%, a sharp contrast to the 80%-100% volatility ranges seen during the 2017 and 2020-21 rallies.
The declining 30-day implied volatility, as measured by the BVIV Index, indicates that traders expect continued price stability. This market maturation reflects Bitcoin’s new normal as a $2 trillion asset—now the world’s seventh largest—which requires substantially larger capital movements to generate significant price swings.
Institutional participation through ETFs and derivatives has not only dampened volatility but also strengthened Bitcoin’s integration within the traditional financial system. As noted by analytics firm Glassnode, “The depth of a market of this size is altering fundamental market dynamics.”
Long-Term Price Predictions and Influential Endorsements
Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump stirred considerable excitement at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas with their strongly bullish cryptocurrency predictions. Both expressed high expectations for Bitcoin’s future during a panel discussion, drawing significant attention from attendees and investors.
Donald Trump Jr. offered a specific price target, forecasting that Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $175,000 by 2026. His brother Eric was even more optimistic, suggesting the digital asset might “skyrocket” as early as next year.
The Trump family’s growing involvement with Bitcoin appears heavily influenced by MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor. Reports indicate that the executive advised substantial Bitcoin investments, even proposing leveraging the family’s Mar-a-Lago estate to raise capital. This advice seems to have been taken seriously—Trump Media recently announced a $2.5 billion initiative to establish a Bitcoin treasury.
Eric Trump, who has been vocal about his criticisms of the “corrupt” traditional banking system after experiencing account closures, is further cementing the family’s commitment to crypto. His venture, American Bitcoin, is preparing for a public listing.
Recent ETF Outflows and Market Impact
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed net outflows of $358.6 million, breaking a 10-day streak of consistent inflows. This represents the largest single-day capital withdrawal since mid-March. BlackRock’s IBIT was the sole ETF to experience inflows, attracting $125 million, while other funds faced substantial outflows.
Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows with $166.32 million withdrawn, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $107.53 million. Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB, along with Bitwise’s BITB, also recorded notable outflows.
This withdrawal partially offset the $4.26 billion accumulated over the previous 10 days of inflows. Cumulative net inflows declined from $453.4 billion to $449.9 billion. Despite the setback, IBIT accounted for 96% of all inflows during the prior 10-day growth period.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicate?
The SOPR measures the profit ratio of spent outputs, helping identify whether holders are realizing profits or losses. A high SOPR suggests many investors are sitting on significant gains, which could lead to increased selling pressure if market momentum slows.
How does institutional investment affect Bitcoin’s volatility?
Increased institutional participation through ETFs and regulated products tends to reduce volatility. Larger, long-term holdings create more stable market foundations, attracting further institutional capital and reinforcing price stability.
Why did Bitcoin ETFs experience significant outflows recently?
The outflows likely resulted from profit-taking after a sustained period of inflows, combined with concerns over short-term momentum. Market cycles often include consolidation phases where investors rebalance portfolios.
What makes the current bull market different from previous ones?
The current cycle is marked by substantially lower volatility and increased institutional involvement. Bitcoin’s larger market cap requires more capital to influence prices, leading to more stable and sustained growth patterns.
How are political developments influencing Bitcoin’s adoption?
Political endorsements, such as political parties accepting Bitcoin donations, enhance legitimacy and encourage broader public and institutional acceptance. These developments integrate cryptocurrency into conventional financial and political systems.
What are the implications of Bitcoin’s lowered volatility?
Reduced volatility makes Bitcoin more attractive as a store of value and less as a speculative asset. This stability supports its role as ‘digital gold’ and encourages long-term investment strategies.