The price of Bitcoin has experienced dramatic fluctuations since the beginning of 2025, heavily influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting macroeconomic conditions. In this article, we explore Bitcoin’s ten-day rollercoaster journey—from a steep downturn triggered by regional conflict to a surprising recovery driven by renewed institutional and policy support.
Overview of Bitcoin’s Recent Price Movement
On June 6, 2025, the cryptocurrency market saw a broad sell-off, with Bitcoin falling below $101,000, marking a daily decline of 3.55%. Earlier in the year, Bitcoin had traded within a relatively high range, reaching $103,800 in mid-May and briefly surpassing $105,000 in early June.
By June 20, Bitcoin was trading around $104,272, with a minor 0.77% drop in the preceding 24 hours. However, the most significant downturn occurred on June 23, when Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since May. Renewed inflation concerns and heightened military actions in the Middle East triggered a sharp sell-off in digital assets, pushing Bitcoin below the $99,000 mark.
Looking at a broader timeline, Bitcoin began a strong bull run in the second half of 2024 and early 2025. After the April 2024 halving event, which reduced the supply of new Bitcoin, growing demand from both institutional and retail investors helped drive prices upward. Long-term holders accumulated more Bitcoin, and wallets holding 10 or more BTC continued to increase, signaling confidence among larger investors.
Institutional products, such as BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, also saw consistent inflows, attracting over $560 million in a single week and supporting upward price momentum. Despite these positive factors, Bitcoin’s rise was not without volatility. Between April and June 2025, the cryptocurrency repeatedly tested the $100,000 threshold, facing both resistance and support around this psychological level.
Derivatives market activity also played a role in price formation. During certain periods, lower leverage and reduced participation—along with sell-offs by major holders—limited Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Ten Critical Days: From Leverage Crunch to Sudden Rebound
The period from June 13 to June 23 marked one of the most volatile phases for Bitcoin in 2025, shaped largely by geopolitical escalation and its aftermath.
Phase One: Conflict-Induced Market Panic
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, significantly raising tensions in the region. The attack involved over 200 fighter jets and more than 330 precision-guided munitions, targeting nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key political and scientific figures.
Iran retaliated later the same day, launching missile strikes against Israel. While most missiles were intercepted, some reached their targets, damaging ground assets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that over 150 Israeli sites were hit in the counterattack.
This military escalation triggered the most severe liquidation event in the crypto market since the bull market began. On June 22, total liquidations reached $1.015 billion, affecting 243,000 traders—89% of whom were long positions. Bitcoin’s price plummeted from $112,000 to $98,200 within hours.
The sell-off was further exacerbated by institutional outflows. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $644 million, creating a downward spiral alongside retail liquidations. Altcoins also suffered, losing approximately $250 billion in market capitalization, while the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin exchange rate fell by 6.2%. Short-term holders panic-sold around 15,000 BTC, and exchange inflows surged by 15% within a single hour.
Phase Two: Cease-Fire and Market Rebound
A cease-fire agreement between Iran and Israel on June 23 prompted a swift market recovery. Bitcoin surged by 5% within 24 hours, breaking past $106,000 and liquidating $494 million in short positions.
However, underlying weaknesses remained. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that buying activity from large holders and ETFs had declined by 50% from peak levels, and demand from new investors continued to weaken. Key support levels were established at $92,000 (on-chain cost basis for recent traders) and $81,000 (lower bound of cost basis), which many analysts viewed as critical for maintaining bull market conditions.
Broader Financial Market Impact
The conflict between Israel and Iran reverberated beyond cryptocurrency, affecting traditional financial markets as well.
- Oil Prices: As a major oil-producing region, instability in the Middle East directly threatened global oil supply chains. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—a transit route for 20% of the world’s oil—contributed to a sharp rise in crude prices.
- Gold: Safe-haven demand increased in the immediate aftermath of the attacks. COMEX gold futures briefly reached $3,343 per ounce, and physical gold ETF holdings rose by 8.2 tons.
- Equities: Regional stock markets, including those in Israel and Iran, faced significant downward pressure. U.S. and European markets also experienced volatility, with technology stocks leading losses on the Nasdaq.
Three Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Resilience
Despite severe liquidations and panic selling, Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience. Three main factors supported its recovery.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The April 2024 halving event permanently reduced the rate of new Bitcoin supply. Combined with steady institutional accumulation—such as Metaplanet’s $1 billion Bitcoin treasury and Canadian firm Universal Digital’s reserve strategy—this created a solid foundation for long-term price support.
Policy and Regulatory Developments
Positive regulatory developments also played a role. On June 24, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 21, making Texas the first U.S. state to establish a publicly funded Bitcoin reserve. The state allocated $10 million to purchase Bitcoin, signaling growing governmental acceptance of digital assets.
In another encouraging move, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced it would consider cryptocurrency holdings in mortgage applications. These developments point toward increasing integration of digital assets into mainstream finance.
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello suggested that Bitcoin could still reach $160,000, noting that even in a worst-case scenario, it would likely find strong support around $95,000 before continuing upward.
Bitcoin’s Role in Conflict Zones
The recent conflict highlighted Bitcoin’s utility in war-torn regions. After Iranian exchange Nobitex was hacked and lost $90 million, attention turned to Bitcoin and blockchain as potential tools for maintaining financial order in crisis situations.
In Gaza, Bitcoin mining equipment has been used to sustain communication networks amid power outages. Similarly, Ukraine raised $127 million in cryptocurrency donations—6.5% of its early international aid—demonstrating how digital assets can support economic and humanitarian efforts during conflicts.
These cases illustrate a growing “shadow financial ecosystem” in which cryptocurrencies function as emergency infrastructure in unstable regions.
Macroeconomic Influences on Bitcoin
While short-term factors like geopolitical events can cause sharp price movements, broader economic trends remain crucial for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
- Global Growth: In a stable or growing economy, investors tend to embrace riskier assets, including Bitcoin. Economic slowdowns or recessions, however, may lead to reduced allocations to cryptocurrencies.
- Monetary Policy: The interest rate policies of central banks—especially the U.S. Federal Reserve—affect capital flows into and out of crypto markets. Higher interest rates often make traditional investments more attractive, drawing funds away from digital assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Bitcoin to drop below $99,000 in June 2025?
The drop was primarily triggered by escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran, which led to mass liquidations, institutional outflows, and panic selling among short-term holders.
How did Bitcoin recover so quickly after the cease-fire?
Market sentiment improved immediately after the cease-fire was announced. Short sellers were forced to cover their positions, contributing to a rapid price rebound. Institutional interest and positive regulatory news also helped restore confidence.
Can Bitcoin really serve as a safe haven during wars?
In some cases, yes. Bitcoin and blockchain technology have been used to maintain communications, secure donations, and preserve financial access in conflict zones where traditional banking infrastructure is compromised. 👉 Learn more about crypto resilience strategies
What are the major support levels for Bitcoin in the current market?
Key support levels are situated around $92,000 and $81,000, which represent the on-chain cost basis for recent buyers and the lower boundary of the cost distribution curve.
How do halving events affect Bitcoin’s price?
Halving events reduce the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, slowing down supply growth. If demand remains constant or increases, this can lead to upward price pressure over time.
Is institutional adoption of Bitcoin still growing?
Yes. Numerous public companies, ETFs, and even state-level entities are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, integrating it into their treasury and investment strategies.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’ journey through June 2025 underscored both its volatility and its resilience. Geopolitical turmoil triggered a sharp decline, but the market’s swift recovery demonstrated continued institutional confidence and growing recognition of Bitcoin’s utility in extreme scenarios. While macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments will continue to influence its price, Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. For those looking to deepen their understanding of market dynamics, 👉 explore more investment strategies and stay informed through reliable sources.