Quantum computing research firm Project 11 has launched an open challenge to the global technical community: successfully break Bitcoin’s cryptographic encryption using a quantum computer within one year, and win a 1 Bitcoin prize (worth approximately $84,000 at the time of writing).
The competition, named the “Q-Day Prize”, directly targets the fundamental security mechanism of Bitcoin—Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). The challenge requires participants to use Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to derive a private key from a corresponding public key, effectively breaking Bitcoin’s digital signature system.
We just launched the Q-Day Prize.
1 BTC to the first team to break a toy version of Bitcoin’s cryptography using a quantum computer.
Deadline: April 5, 2026
Mission: Protect 6M BTC (over $500B)
In an official statement released last Wednesday, Project 11 emphasized:
“Our goal is straightforward yet critically urgent—we must understand how significant a threat quantum computers pose to Bitcoin’s core encryption.”
Currently, Bitcoin relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to verify transaction signatures. However, Project 11 warns that once quantum computing technology matures, Shor’s algorithm could theoretically reverse-engineer private keys from public keys, rendering digital wallets vulnerable.
According to Project 11’s estimates, around 6.2 million Bitcoins (worth nearly $500 billion) could be at risk if such an attack becomes feasible.
“We have no clear idea of how close the ‘quantum apocalypse’ really is,” said Alex Pruden, CEO and co-founder of Project 11.
“That’s exactly why we created the Q-Day Prize: to turn a theoretical quantum threat into a tangible, verifiable real-world challenge.”
In recent years, tech giants including Alibaba, Amazon, Google, and IBM have heavily invested in quantum computing research. Microsoft made a significant breakthrough in February of this year with the introduction of the Majorana 1 quantum processor, which successfully incorporated 8 topological qubits—a step toward potentially overcoming current cryptographic barriers.
That said, most experts agree that breaking Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm would require millions of stable qubits, a technical milestone still considered out of reach in the near term.
Understanding the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
Quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits), which can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to superposition. This allows them to solve certain types of problems much faster than classical computers.
Shor’s algorithm, developed in 1994, is designed to factor large integers efficiently—a task that would break widely used public-key cryptosystems, including RSA and ECDSA, which Bitcoin uses.
How Bitcoin Encryption Currently Works
Bitcoin uses two main cryptographic techniques:
- SHA-256: A hash function used in Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism.
- ECDSA: Used to create digital signatures that prove ownership of funds.
While SHA-256 is considered resistant to quantum attacks for now, ECDSA is vulnerable if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can run Shor’s algorithm.
What Would It Take to Break Bitcoin?
Breaking Bitcoin’s encryption isn’t just about raw qubit count. Key challenges include:
- Qubit stability: Quantum systems are prone to decoherence and error.
- Algorithm efficiency: Shor’s algorithm requires significant computational resources even on quantum hardware.
- Network timing: Attackers would need to compromise keys between transaction broadcast and confirmation.
Most estimates suggest that breaking ECDSA would require a quantum computer with over 10,000 logical qubits—which may first require millions of physical qubits due to error correction needs.
Is Bitcoin Preparing for a Quantum Future?
The Bitcoin community is already discussing post-quantum cryptographic solutions. These include:
- Lamport signatures: One-time hash-based signatures that are quantum-resistant.
- Lattice-based cryptography: Another promising approach still under research.
- Upgradable scripting: Future soft forks could introduce quantum-safe algorithms.
👉 Explore quantum-resistant security strategies
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Can quantum computers break Bitcoin today?
A: No. Current quantum computers lack the qubit count and stability to break ECDSA or SHA-256. Most experts believe we are years or decades away from that level of technology.
Q: What is Shor’s algorithm?
A: It’s a quantum algorithm that factors large integers exponentially faster than classical methods, making it a threat to current public-key cryptography systems.
Q: How much Bitcoin is at risk if quantum computers advance?
A: Estimates suggest over 6 million BTC (mostly stored in reused addresses or exposed public keys) could be vulnerable. However, not all wallets would be affected equally.
Q: Is Bitcoin the only cryptocurrency at risk?
A: No. Most cryptocurrencies using ECDSA (like Ethereum) or similar encryption are also theoretically vulnerable. Privacy coins and quantum-resistant projects may have an advantage.
Q: What can users do to protect their Bitcoin?
A: Avoid reusing addresses, use wallets that implement post-quantum signatures when available, and stay informed about protocol upgrades.
Q: Will Bitcoin need to hard fork to become quantum-resistant?
A: It’s likely. Integrating new cryptographic standards would require broad consensus and possibly a backward-incompatible upgrade.
Conclusion
While the “Q-Day Prize” by Project 11 highlights a serious long-term threat, Bitcoin’ encryption remains secure for now. The challenge serves as a proactive measure to accelerate research and readiness within the crypto community. Continuous monitoring of quantum advancements and gradual integration of quantum-resistant techniques will be essential to safeguard Bitcoin’s future.