The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reduced Bitcoin's volatility, and the era of "crazy weekends" appears to be fading. These financial products have aligned Bitcoin's trading patterns more closely with traditional stock exchange hours, contributing to calmer price movements.
According to data from cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko, the proportion of Bitcoin traded on weekends has dropped to an all-time low of 16% this year.
Unlike stocks, cryptocurrencies are known for their 24/7 trading availability, including Saturdays and Sundays. Historically, Bitcoin was infamous for its "wild weekends," where significant price swings were common. However, this trend is cooling off. Weekend trading volume has steadily declined since its 2019 peak of 28%.
Dessislava Aubert, a senior analyst at Kaiko, notes that the decline in weekend trading is a trend that has been developing for years, but the introduction of ETFs has accelerated it.
How ETFs Changed Bitcoin Trading Hours
Unlike cryptocurrencies traded on exchanges like Binance at any time, spot Bitcoin ETFs follow the schedule of traditional Wall Street stock exchanges—meaning no weekend trading.
Kaiko also highlights that the proportion of Bitcoin traded between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. on weekdays increased from 4.5% in Q4 2023 to 6.7%. This period, known as the benchmark pricing window, is when ETF providers determine Bitcoin’s price to calculate the net asset value of their funds.
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External Factors Reducing Weekend Activity
Another factor contributing to reduced weekend trading was the collapse of crypto-friendly banks, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, in March 2023. These institutions provided round-the-clock payment networks that market makers used to buy and sell cryptocurrencies in real time. Without them, liquidity during off-hours diminished.
As Kaiko’s report explains:
The spread between weekend and weekday trading is likely to persist. Since market makers profit from high trading volumes through bid-ask spreads, they have less incentive to provide liquidity in low-volume environments.
Lower Volatility Signals Market Maturity
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin through spot ETFs has also significantly reduced price volatility. When Bitcoin last reached an all-time high in November 2021, its volatility spiked to nearly 106%. In contrast, when ETFs drove Bitcoin to a new high in March 2024, volatility was only 40%.
Kaiko suggests that lower volatility—which has remained below 50% since early 2023—indicates that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset.
The report states:
While it’s too early to call this a new normal, changes in Bitcoin’s market structure over the past year may help explain why price action has been relatively ‘boring.’
Current Market Sentiment and ETF Flows
Since March, Bitcoin's price has fallen approximately 13%, a sharp contrast to the 67% and 57% gains seen in the previous two quarters. After hitting a record high of $73,798 on March 14, Bitcoin ended the second quarter near $61,000.
This slowdown has led some to question whether declining momentum in assets like Bitcoin signals broader risk-off sentiment in the face of prolonged high interest rates.
Austin Reid, Global Head of Revenue and Business at FalconX, commented:
Much of the doubt stems from macro concerns. We’re seeing short-term uncertainty reflected in the crypto market, similar to what we observe in other asset classes.
One of the clearest indicators of cooling interest is the slowdown in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data compiled by CoinShares shows that investors allocated approximately $2.6 billion to these ETFs in Q2, compared to around $13 billion in the first quarter—an 80% decline.
Matthew O’Neill, Co-Head of Research at Financial Technology Partners, noted:
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs generated significant excitement. After the rally, a natural price correction followed.
O’Neill added that these ETFs attracted professional investors interested in gaining Bitcoin exposure through regulated products. Those who haven’t invested yet may be waiting for the next price surge before entering the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume decreased?
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which only trade during traditional market hours, has reduced weekend activity. Additionally, the collapse of key crypto-friendly banks in 2023 limited the ability of market makers to operate outside standard hours.
How have ETFs affected Bitcoin’s price volatility?
ETFs have attracted institutional investors, leading to increased liquidity and more stable pricing. As a result, Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased significantly compared to previous bull markets.
What does lower volatility mean for Bitcoin?
Reduced volatility suggests that Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature asset class. This may attract long-term investors but could disappoint those seeking high short-term gains.
Are spot Bitcoin ETFs still attracting investment?
While inflows have slowed since Q1 2024, ETFs continue to draw interest from institutional players. Many potential investors may be waiting for clearer signals before committing capital.
How do traditional banking hours affect crypto ETFs?
Since ETFs trade on stock exchanges, they are only active on weekdays during market hours. This structural limitation naturally reduces weekend trading activity for Bitcoin.
Will weekend trading disappear entirely?
It’s unlikely. Retail trading on crypto exchanges continues on weekends, but the proportion of volume may remain lower due to the influence of institutional products like ETFs.