Bitcoin has continued to break all-time highs this week, reaching nearly $93,000. The $100,000 milestone now appears within reach. But many are asking: is it too late to enter the market? Should I jump into meme coins while sentiment is high? Do altcoins still have potential?
As discussed in previous articles, a true bull market often begins only after Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high—around $73,000 in March this year. Bitcoin acts as the barometer for the broader crypto market. Even if not everyone holds it, its record-breaking performance typically signals the start of a major bull run.
With this surge, mainstream media coverage increases, drawing more new retail investors into crypto. Recently, I monitored Coinbase’s ranking on the App Store and noticed a sharp rise. Within just one week, its U.S. ranking jumped from 360th to 13th. Let’s look at some historical context:
- On November 25, 2020, Coinbase ranked 73rd among all apps. Bitcoin was around $18,000.
- By April 16, 2021, it reached 2nd place as Bitcoin hit $64,000.
- On October 28, 2021, it climbed to 1st after Bitcoin recovered to $64,000 post the “May 19” crash.
Recently, on November 4, 2024, Coinbase was ranked 475th. By November 15, it rose to 13th.
This data can serve as a useful sentiment indicator when cross-referenced with Bitcoin’s price movements.
Google Trends data further supports increased public interest. Search volume for “Bitcoin” has returned to levels seen in early 2024. Notable past spikes include:
- May 2021: Interest surged during the “May 19” market crash.
- June 2022: Attention peaked again during the LUNA/UST collapse, which triggered failures of major entities like Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and FTX.
These trends show that retail investors often engage or re-engage with crypto during major market events or all-time highs. Currently, the driving force appears to be Bitcoin’s record-breaking performance.
Besides app rankings and search trends, many other indicators can help gauge market sentiment. The key is to find metrics that align with your strategy.
So, is it too late to enter the market? Let’s explore further.
Bitcoin Has Not Yet Reached a Market Top
Several long-term metrics suggest Bitcoin may not have peaked yet. These include:
- MVRV Z-Score
- NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
- Puell Multiple
- Pi Cycle Top Indicator
- Rainbow Chart
- 2-Year MA Multiplier
- 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap
- Golden Ratio Multiplier
- RHODL Ratio
- AASI (Active Address Sentiment Indicator)
- AHR999 Index
These tools help assess market cycles, though they should not be used in isolation.
Other supporting data includes:
- BTC ETF Flows: Despite a $400 million outflow on November 14, recent net inflows remain strong. Continued monitoring is advised.
- BTC Funding Rates: These have stayed relatively low even after Bitcoin crossed $80,000, suggesting leveraged speculation isn’t excessive yet. High funding rates often coincide with market tops.
It’s important to remember that indicators can lag. Rather than timing the market perfectly, focus on risk management and a clear investment plan. Dollar-cost averaging and setting profit-taking targets can help manage volatility.
Altcoins Have Underperformed So Far
Currently, Ethereum and other major altcoins have not reached new all-time highs. Even SOL, which has been popular this cycle, remains 14% below its peak. ETH is 31% away from its all-time high.
While meme coins are attracting attention, more established assets like Ethereum may have stronger long-term potential. I believe ETH will eventually break its previous record, potentially leading to a broader altcoin rally.
Historically, once Bitcoin stabilizes at a higher range, capital often flows into altcoins seeking higher returns. This cycle, however, is different due to the overwhelming number of new projects and the dominance of meme coins. This could impact the health and sustainability of the altcoin market.
When Will the Altcoin Season Begin?
Several factors influence the start of an altcoin season:
- Ethereum needs to break its all-time high.
- The oversupply of new projects must be absorbed.
- Meme coin mania may need to cool down.
The altcoin market may not fully awaken until Bitcoin’s price stabilizes—whether at $100,000 or higher. Until then, meme coins may continue to dominate, accompanied by viral stories of rapid gains.
Based on current macro conditions, altseason could begin in Q1 2025. One key factor is monetary policy. Since mid-2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet through Quantitative Tightening (QT), which generally pressures risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
If the Fed signals an end to QT—possibly in the December FOMC meeting—it could mark the beginning of a sustained altcoin rally. Until then, focus on quality projects in trending sectors.
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Conclusion
The current crypto market cycle does not appear to have peaked. We are likely in a phase where institutional and large-scale investors are attracting retail participation through media coverage and rising public interest.
Macro factors like expected Fed rate cuts in 2025 and potential crypto-friendly policies could further support the market. Many institutions are still positioning themselves.
For those who have been accumulating through dollar-cost averaging since 2022, patience remains key. Stick to your plan, avoid emotional decisions, and prepare to exit according to your strategy once the market enters a FOMO-driven bubble phase.
Bull markets offer great opportunities but are not without risk. Corrections of 30% or more can occur. Stay calm, manage your position sizes, and avoid excessive leverage. The final phase of a bull market is often where inexperienced investors suffer the most significant losses.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it too late to buy Bitcoin near $100,000?
Not necessarily. While short-term volatility is expected, many analysts believe Bitcoin could still have significant upside based on historical cycles and current adoption trends.
Should I invest in meme coins now?
Meme coins carry high risk and are often driven by hype rather than fundamentals. Only allocate what you can afford to lose and consider diversifying into more established assets.
What is the best strategy for altcoins?
Focus on strong fundamentals, active development, and real-world use cases. Avoid investing based solely on short-term hype or social media trends.
How can I manage risk in a volatile market?
Use position sizing, set stop-losses, avoid over-leveraging, and consider taking profits periodically according to your plan.
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin this cycle?
It’s possible, especially if Ethereum’s upcoming upgrades improve scalability and demand. However, Bitcoin remains the market leader and is often less volatile.
What role does the Federal Reserve play in crypto markets?
Monetary policy influences liquidity and risk appetite. Tighter policy (QT) often reduces capital flow into crypto, while easing (lower rates) can support higher valuations.