The global stock market remains highly volatile, placing downward pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) prices. However, on-chain data reveals that major Bitcoin holders, often referred to as 'whales,' are accelerating their accumulation trend.
Market Turmoil and the Fake News Spike
On April 7th, global financial markets continued their decline, with U.S. stocks falling over 3% at the open, wiping out more than $2 trillion in market capitalization. This pullback pushed the S&P 500 index down by 2.79%, officially pushing it into bear market territory as it fell 20% from its recent all-time high.
A brief, dramatic rebound occurred when a rumor spread that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day tariff suspension. The S&P 500 surged by as much as 6% on the news, and the price of Bitcoin broke above $80,000. However, this rally lasted only about 30 minutes before the White House confirmed the rumor was false. The S&P 500 managed to stay in positive territory for the day, but the sustainability of any recovery remains uncertain due to the underlying bearish sentiment that existed before the fake news circulated.
The impact was acutely felt in Asia. Stock markets in trade-dependent economies were hit hard. Hong Kong's key index plummeted by 13%, marking its worst performance since the Asian financial crisis. Major indices in Shanghai, Taipei, and Tokyo also saw significant declines, falling between 7% and 10%. The selling was so intense that Nikkei 225 futures halted trading after triggering a circuit breaker.
The core of the market's anxiety is the escalating tension between the U.S. and China. President Trump confirmed that if China did not withdraw its preliminary 34% tariffs on U.S. goods by April 8th, the U.S. would impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese exports on April 9th.
Bitcoin Hits New Low Amidst Whale Accumulation
After showing signs of decoupling from U.S. equities on April 3rd and 4th, Bitcoin's price fell 6.5% over the weekend. On April 7th, it hit a new low for the year at $74,457. This was Bitcoin's lowest price since November 7th, 2024, leading some speculators to anticipate further declines.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, cautioned investors, stating, "Don't try to catch a falling knife. The market conditions for Bitcoin have not improved. There is only one bullish signal on the Bull-Bear Score Index."
Despite the price drop, a compelling narrative is forming beneath the surface. Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin whales—addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC—are accelerating their accumulation. Meanwhile, smaller holders continue to sell.
The whales' accumulation trend score reached 1.0 around April 1st, reflecting a 15-day buying spree that was the largest since late August 2024. Since March 11th, these large holders have added 129,000 BTC to their holdings. Their accumulation score has remained at a stable 0.65, indicating a consistent and strong trend of buying.
In contrast, cohorts holding from less than 1 BTC up to 100 BTC have shifted to distribution. Their accumulation scores have fallen to between 0.1 and 0.2, a trend that is expected to persist for much of 2025.
This significant whale buying coincides with Bitcoin finding support around the $74,000 level. This price point is bolstered by 50,000 BTC investors who have remained inactive since March 10th, suggesting they are unwilling to sell at current prices.
Analyzing On-Chain Supply Dynamics
Further reinforcing the accumulation thesis, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that supply dynamics metrics show new Bitcoin supply is currently growing faster than the annual change in active coins. A positive reading on this metric indicates increased market demand or accumulation. Historically, a rise in this indicator has often coincided with recoveries in Bitcoin's price.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the sudden spike in Bitcoin and stock prices on April 7th?
A rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day tariff suspension caused a brief, sharp rally. Both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin price surged on the news, but the gains were completely erased after the White House debunked the story as false.
Who are Bitcoin "whales"?
Bitcoin whales are entities or individuals that hold very large amounts of Bitcoin, typically defined as addresses containing 10,000 BTC or more. Their trading activity can significantly influence the market due to the size of their positions.
What does "whale accumulation" mean for the Bitcoin price?
Sustained whale accumulation is generally considered a bullish long-term signal. It suggests that large, sophisticated investors are confident in Bitcoin's future value and are buying despite short-term price weakness, potentially providing strong support and laying the foundation for a future price recovery.
Did Bitcoin decouple from the stock market?
Bitcoin showed brief signs of decoupling early in the week, but it ultimately fell alongside stocks when market-wide risk-off sentiment intensified due to geopolitical tensions and the fake news event. The correlation, especially in times of extreme stress, often remains.
What is an accumulation trend score?
An accumulation trend score is an on-chain metric that aggregates wallet activity to determine whether a specific cohort of holders (e.g., whales) is net accumulating or distributing coins. A score of 1 indicates maximum accumulation, while 0 indicates maximum distribution.
Should I invest based on whale activity?
Whale activity is one useful data point among many. While it can indicate sentiment among large holders, it should not be the sole basis for an investment decision. Comprehensive research and understanding your risk tolerance are essential.