A recent analysis by Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, suggests a potential Bitcoin price pullback to the $63,000 level. The report also indicates that the recent meme coin mania has likely reached its peak, advising investors to consider taking profits. Thielen is recognized for accurately predicting a previous Bitcoin retracement to $38,000 following the spot ETF approvals.
Key Factors Behind the Predicted Bitcoin and Ethereum Pullback
Markus Thielen's analysis points to several concerning factors in the current market structure. Bitcoin's recent rally to new all-time highs occurred on relatively low trading volumes and liquidity, creating a fragile foundation. This weakness makes the market susceptible to a deeper correction.
Several macroeconomic and asset-specific concerns are adding to the cautious outlook. Unpredictable volatility surrounding key U.S. economic data, including inflation and jobs reports, is creating uncertainty. Furthermore, the analysis highlights that MicroStrategy shares appear to be trading at a significant premium—between 60% to 90% overvalued—relative to the value of its substantial Bitcoin holdings. This discrepancy often signals a market ripe for a correction.
Adding to the dampened sentiment, central bank officials have shown a reluctance to implement interest rate cuts in the near term, removing a potential tailwind for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin's Path to $63,000
Thielen predicts that Bitcoin could retreat to approximately $63,000 before finding solid support and resuming its upward trajectory. This forecast is supported by the observation that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, even though selling pressure from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has diminished. This alignment of slowing demand despite reduced forced selling creates a potential imbalance.
Other market analysts have echoed similar sentiments, predicting a potential dip below key support levels in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event.
Ethereum Shows Fundamental Weakness
Ethereum is also displaying signs of vulnerability. Despite the successful implementation of the Dencun upgrade, which aims to reduce transaction fees on Layer 2 networks, a fundamental challenge has emerged. The proliferation of these Layer 2 chains is expected to dilute the overall yield that accrues to the Ethereum base layer, potentially impacting its value proposition.
Compounding this issue, the probability of a spot Ethereum ETF receiving approval in May is currently estimated at a mere 30%. This regulatory uncertainty, combined with weak technical chart patterns, suggests that ETH price may be headed for a period of consolidation or a further pullback from its current levels.
👉 Explore real-time market analysis tools
The Meme Coin Mania Has Topped, Analyst Says
The report delivers a stark warning for meme coin investors, declaring that the rally has likely reached its short-term peak. The initial surge in meme coins, including major tokens like Shiba Inu, was partly triggered by the confident buying from major institutional players like BlackRock's clients entering the market via Bitcoin ETFs.
A key indicator of the mania's end is the significant drop in trading volume, particularly from South Korea, a region known for its enthusiastic retail participation in speculative crypto assets. The fading volume suggests that retail interest is waning.
Altcoin rallies are typically closely tied to Ethereum's momentum. With growing uncertainty surrounding ETH's price action and broader macroeconomic factors, the entire altcoin sector, including meme coins, is at a high risk of a correction. The sharp decline in South Korean trading activity serves as a potent signal that the speculative frenzy is over and a broader market correction may be beginning.
This shift in sentiment is reflected on-chain, with reports of large-scale investors, or "whales," moving substantial amounts of meme coins like SHIB to exchanges, typically a precursor to selling.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main reason for the predicted Bitcoin price correction?
The primary reasons include a weak market structure after a low-volume rally, overvalued correlated equities like MicroStrategy, macroeconomic uncertainty from U.S. economic data, and a cautious stance from central banks on rate cuts.
How low could Bitcoin price go according to this analysis?
Markus Thielen of 10x Research predicts a potential correction towards the $63,000 support level before the market could find its footing and resume a longer-term upward trend.
Why are meme coins expected to fall?
Meme coin rallies are highly speculative and often depend on strong bullish momentum from major coins like Ethereum and high retail trading volume. With both of these factors fading and signs of whale selling, a significant pullback is considered likely.
Is now a good time to sell meme coins?
The analysis specifically suggests that the meme coin mania has "ended" and that it is a time for investors to "book profits," indicating that selling could be a prudent strategy to lock in gains before a potential downturn.
What does the drop in South Korean trading volume signify?
South Korea is a major hub for retail crypto trading, especially for speculative assets like meme coins. A sharp decline in volume from this region is a strong indicator that retail interest is dissipating, often signaling the end of a speculative bubble.
Could the Bitcoin halving change this bearish outlook?
While the halving is historically a bullish long-term event, many analysts predict short-term volatility and potential price dips in the weeks immediately preceding it. The current analysis suggests a correction could happen before the halving occurs.